Obama won’t get the mainline Evangelical vote. Will McCain? I doubt it. UPDATE: More here. EPILOGUE: Here’s an astute observation from a progressive blogger last week.

One underdiscussed scenario in this election is the one wherein Republican base
turnout is relatively low. Although this has generally been an engaging election with engaging candidates, the base remains considerably less enthusiastic about John McCain than it was about George W. Bush, and McCain is also lacking Bush’s ground game. While the natural assumption is that Democrats would prefer a large turnout, what they are really aiming for is something in the medium-to-high range: one where their base turns out but the Republican one doesn’t.

Now that The One is enthroned, the MSM are buzzing about "record voter turnout." But it wasn’t a record across the board. Big Media could care less about Evangelicals staying home in droves this cycle (with a few exceptions). They’re probably quietly happy about it. I’m down with that. But if the Republican Party is going to turn things around, it’ll have to figure out how to get that part of the base back.

Same-same with NAE.