Acton Institute PowerBlog - Comments

mad texan: Global Warming COOLING Consensus Alert: The Ice Age Cometh?

blog@acton.org (mad texan) — Tue, 13 May 2008 15:33:39 -0600

Chapman’s column was debunked in The Australian a few days later:

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23612876-11949,00.html

Some of the key points:

“THE opinion piece by Phil Chapman (”Sorry to ruin the fun, but an ice age cometh", Opinion, April 22) warns of an approaching ice age but contains a number of factual errors, misleading statements and incorrect conclusions.

Chapman reports global average temperature cooled by 0.7C in 2007 and says: “If the temperature does not soon recover, we will have to conclude that global warming is over.”

It is true that global data sets show a pronounced cooling from January2007 to January 2008 of slightly less than 0.7C. It is an error to state, as Chapman does, that this is unprecedented, as similar dramatic falls occurred from 1998 to 1999, and from 1973 to 1974. It should also be noted that the global average temperature has warmed substantially, by about 0.3C from January 2008 to March 2008. In addition, the annual average temperature for 2007 was within 0.1C of the average temperature in 2006 and 2005; no dramatic cooling there.

So what caused this rapid cooling during 2007, and also from 1998 to 1999, and from 1973 to 1974? What was common to all those periods? In each case, the common factor was a rapid change from El Nino to La Nina conditions, from warm temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean to cold temperatures in the same region, which has a significant effect on global climate patterns and global average temperature. La Nina is associated with below-normal global average temperature, and because of its influence, 2008 is likely to be about 0.3C cooler than the average of the previous few years.

Chapman did not consider La Nina as a cause of the cooling in 2007 and instead linked it to the minimum in the 11-year cycle in sunspot numbers: “The first sunspot appeared in January this year and lasted only two days. A tiny spot appeared last Monday but vanished within 24 hours. Another little spot appeared this Monday.”

I don’t know where these sunspot numbers came from but they are in error. The best source of data for present sunspot numbers is the World Data Centre for Solar Terrestrial Physics at the National Geophysical Data Centre in Boulder, Colorado. According to it, the average number of sunspots a day last January was 3.4, followed by 2.1 in February and 9.3 in March. The minimum was in October2007.

So, are variations in global average temperature directly related to sunspot numbers on a monthly, annual or decadal timescale?

Certainly not on a monthly timescale and the effect, if any, on a year-to-year timescale is very small, as can be found by correlating the variations of global average temperature on monthly or annual timescales with the sunspot numbers. Any relationship between sunspot numbers and global average temperatures is much, much smaller than the clear relationship between inter-annual variations of equatorial Pacific Sea surface temperatures and global average temperatures, showing the effect of the El Nino-La Nina cycle.

While those errors are bad enough, the main flaw in Chapman’s opinion is trying to infer long-term climate trends from short-term (one year) variations of global temperature. It is well known (among climate scientists) that there are large inter-annual variations of global temperature caused by a number of factors, including El Nino, big volcanic eruptions, or just the chaotic variability of the climate system. It is not possible to make conclusions about long-term climate trends from inter-annual climate variations. Many lines of evidence support the conclusion reached last year by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that “warming of the climate system is unequivocal”, referring to changes over the past 100 years. Even when we consider only the global average temperature during La Nina episodes, such as the present cool period, we find that we are experiencing the warmest global temperature of any strong La Nina episode in the past 100 years, again showing clear long-term global warming. "

William Garland: The Ethics of Immigration

blog@acton.org (William Garland) — Tue, 13 May 2008 11:30:22 -0600

Mr. Powers,
If you dislike a system which attempts to match immigration with skills needed in the workforce in an effort to insure immigrants are employed and not public charges, are you willing to assume responsibility for those whom you would prefer so that they will not become taxpayer burdens?

jimenese: Outlawing Baggy and Saggy Pants Won't Work

blog@acton.org (jimenese) — Tue, 13 May 2008 09:37:53 -0600

i tihnk it shouldn’t be much of a problem because its not like they doin anything wrong i guess others just wanna find things to do meanin these police cause its more of blacks then any that does this so whats really goin on with this in take awhile to think about it more like a race thing at lease thats what it look like.

marc: The 2008 EO/Wheatstone Academy Symposium

blog@acton.org (marc) — Tue, 13 May 2008 09:18:01 -0600

ZING!!

Letitia (The Damsel): The 2008 EO/Wheatstone Academy Symposium

blog@acton.org (Letitia (The Damsel)) — Mon, 12 May 2008 17:56:09 -0600

Well, from fourth loser to first loser, congratulations!

John Powers: The Ethics of Immigration

blog@acton.org (John Powers) — Mon, 12 May 2008 13:06:45 -0600

Well William,

Right now I need another bricklayer and a person to watch my son so he doesn’t crawl into the mortar rotating around in my back yard.

I do not need a pinhead in Washington deciding what skills are need for the economy.

I am perfectly capable of deciding what skills I need, as most people will work depending upon how much they are paid, you can usually strike a deal on labor in exchange for money....even without a “Canadian type system”.

JBP

Anonymous: Religion in the '08 Election

blog@acton.org () — Sun, 11 May 2008 18:18:29 -0600

I live in Europe and PLEASE take in to consideration when you vote that this election does not only affect AMERICANS. You and your nations people have an enormous responsibility to not only elect a president for youselves, but a president capable of restoring the US’s respectability and reputation elsewhere. This election could very well deside the future for millions of people outside the US. John McCain, being a Republican, is feared for following the path laid these last eight years. This must not happen. The US and the world needs a Democrat!

Steven Earl Salmony: European Commission Attacks its Own Scientists

blog@acton.org (Steven Earl Salmony) — Sun, 11 May 2008 14:08:50 -0600

Bleak future may await our children

http://www.chapelhillnews.com/opinion/letters/story/14447.html

Humankind inhabits a tiny celestial orb that is miraculously set among of sea of stars. As far as we know, life as we know it exists nowhere else in the universe. Perhaps we of the human family have the responsibility of assuring the security for the future of life in our planetary home.

April 22 was Earth Day. Our many Earth Day celebrations focus attention on the pressing need for human beings to protect and preserve the finite resources of Earth and its frangible ecosystems. If we fail to achieve this goal, then an unimaginably bleak future awaits our children.

If 6-plus billion human beings live on Earth now and 9-plus billion are expected to populate our small planet by 2050, then we simply cannot keep doing what we are doing now because the Earth has limited resources. Without adequate resources and ecosystem system services of Earth, life as we know it and human institutions would collapse.

Some portion of the world’s human population conspicuously over-consumes the resources of our planetary home. Other people, in charge of huge multinational conglomerations, are doing business in a way that recklessly dissipates natural resources. Still others in the human family are overpopulating the planet. The leviathan-like scale and rapid growth of global human consumption, production and propagation activities are putting the Earth, life as we know it, and the human community in grave, clear and present danger.

Since Chapel Hillians live in the overdeveloped world, we are among the people who are ravenously over-consuming Earth’s resources. We could choose to consume less. People in the developing could choose to limit overproduction of unnecessary things and contain industrial pollution. People in the underdeveloped world could limit their number of offspring. Perhaps these are ways the family of humanity begins to respond ably to the human-induced global challenges that loom so ominously.

– Steven Earl Salmony, Chapel Hill

Clare Krishan: European Commission Attacks its Own Scientists

blog@acton.org (Clare Krishan) — Sun, 11 May 2008 09:24:19 -0600

Well since the biotechnology firms are on the vanguard of embryonic stem cell research the question of “whose ox is being gored” seems VERY relevant to me, as a Catholic it seems by brothers and sisters in Poland, Austria, Italy and our Eastern Orthodox siblings in Greece all share an antipathy to meddling with the sacredness of life. As a biochemist myself, I counsel caution when scientists want to slam other scientists.

Again Acton is barking up the wrong tree!

IMHO ‘efficiency’ and ‘productivity’ are offensive Calvinist heresies. Small is beautiful subsidiarity would work if Keynesian central bankers weren’t blatantly interfering, corrupting the markets in money supply with FIAT credit. Bush prays over the relics of St. Imulus, buys himself an indulgence from the Fed by reducing the interest rate, and then sends alms to the starving and homeless in far away places. Luther must be spinning somersaults in which ever vault he’s interred. The US Government is more corrupt than the Vatican ever had been...

Bob: Population Control Update

blog@acton.org (Bob) — Fri, 09 May 2008 17:44:28 -0600

Which one of you is the descendant of Thomas Malthus and which of Margaret Sanger? :-)

Mark: Toward a Theological Ethic for Internet Discourse

blog@acton.org (Mark) — Fri, 09 May 2008 12:14:17 -0600

You said:

“But if we are to take up the fundamentally important doctrinal disputes of the Reformation era and beyond, then we must do so in a spirit of humility, recognizing our human frailties and shortcomings.”

Well done. If this is our fundamental ethic, we can seize the new media opportunities by the grace of God. By avoiding the “rabies theologorum,” you are helping us remember that ultimately it is God’s kindness that leads to repentance, not our arguments or theological correctness.

Ryan: The 2008 EO/Wheatstone Academy Symposium

blog@acton.org (Ryan) — Fri, 09 May 2008 11:05:55 -0600

good work!

Constance: Catholic NGOs Miss the Boat on the Food Crisis

blog@acton.org (Constance) — Fri, 09 May 2008 09:04:30 -0600

Looking at pictures of starving children, all this seems like to little to late.
But as they say - better late then never.

Nathaniel: Population Control Update

blog@acton.org (Nathaniel) — Fri, 09 May 2008 07:49:53 -0600

I would just like to thank the person who started this blog for giving me another chance to point out that there really is NOT a link between population and global warming.

Global Warming is caused by pollution we put in the air-mostly by burning old (and formerly buried) carbon from coal and oil. As there is not any set car, coal power plant, factory, electronic device, and any other kind of trinket per person ratio there is not set carbon output per person ratio. The ones that people try to create by dividing CO2 and population by one another keep changing because the car (and other trinket) level per household has been going up regardless of what happens to the birthrate (which is actually pretty low in the USA)-as some of you have noted.

CO2 (like many other pollutants) is added to the air because what we choose to do, not how many of us there are. And all that CO2 you may be worried about us breathing in and out. That is mostly already in the Carbon cycle on the surface of the planet. What have been doing with coal and oil is adding buried (not in the current Carbon cycle) Carbon to the air.

Gabe: Persecution as a Mark of the Church

blog@acton.org (Gabe) — Thu, 08 May 2008 08:57:55 -0600

Powerful thoughts - and very true. Thanks!

I’ve linked to you over at Remember Ambassadors:

www.rememberambassadors.com